Why Accurate Estimations Are Just Not Possible

Estimating a new feature... it's like a little fish swimming toward you.

Here comes the little fish.

Look at the little fish!

The fish is tiny!

I can eat this fish! I'll swallow him in one bite!

Are you sure it's going to be so easy?

Of course it will be easy! This fish is tiny!

But you've been wrong before.

Shut up, voice in my head, this fish is tiny! I'm staring straight at it!

One bite. Munch! Gone! This will be a cinch! It's hardly a fish! Just a dot! A tiny dot! I'll eat the tiny dot!

Here comes the fish!

Wait a second. I'm getting a bad feeling about this.

It's too late. You're committed now.

Here's the fish from side on.

Oh. Damn.

'Marcos' on Thu, 19 Apr 2007 01:57:53 GMT, sez:

That's really hilarious !!!

This remember my last project estimation :P

Keep in the funny side =)

Best Regards

PS: I can create a poster and put in the monitor of my coworkers ?? without giving you any fee ?? :P

'lb' on Thu, 19 Apr 2007 02:02:26 GMT, sez:

Go for it Marcus! A hundred dollars will suffice ;-)
No, print away. Make it stylish though! You've got better graphic design skills than me.

Also when I told my wife this story -- she pointed out that the story could also be told with hamburgers. It could be thing from the end -- but then a big long hero-sandwich when viewed from the side.

'Matt' on Thu, 19 Apr 2007 14:30:39 GMT, sez:

Brilliant!

This had me remembering the scene from Monty Python And The Holy Grail where Sir Lancelot charges at a castle.

'http://' on Fri, 20 Apr 2007 15:11:43 GMT, sez:

This also could be a good representation of what the customer sees vs the work that goes behind it.

'lb' on Mon, 23 Apr 2007 22:15:28 GMT, sez:

This article is also available in japanese:

http://www.aoky.net/articles/leon_bambrick/littlefishes.htm

(note to self -- link to the japanese translation from top of page -- using flag? is that acceptabke?)

'Beat' on Fri, 01 Jun 2007 07:16:53 GMT, sez:

Absolutely true and hilarious ! still giggling !

May we copy into our open-source project website with a reference and link ?

'Daniel' on Wed, 17 Oct 2007 15:05:47 GMT, sez:

I've seen that fish many times but it seems it was just discovered. Is this the fish?

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/10/photogalleries/marine-pictures/index.html

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