The financial model's construction is described in a working paper available at https://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/eprg-working-paper-2001/. The model will determine the net present value and payback period for a proposed nuclear power plant and liquid air energy storage plant with the set of design parameters detailed below. The model is a Monte Carlo simualtion and requires the Palisade @RISK plugin for Excel - version 8 or later.
The hybrid plant (nuclear plus storage) net present value is output in cell B23 of the Annual accounts sheet; the payback period is output in cell B24. The payback period of an equivalent nuclear power only plant is output in cell B43 with the payback period in cell B44.
All input parameters are defined in the 'Control parameters' sheet and can be described as follows (please refer to the @RISK documentation for description of the distribution and time series parameter definitions). Only cells in green should be adjusted - grey cells with orange text are calculated by the model:
Parameter name Units Cell(s) Description
Nuclear power plant asset base cost £ B3 The base cost of the nuclear power plant
NPP spending factor - D4 (min), E4 (most likely), F4 (max) PERT distribution parameters for the overspend factor for the nuclear power plant
NPP construction time - mobilisation years D7 (n), E7 (p), F7 (shift) Binomial distribution parameters for the mobilisation construction time for the nuclear power plant
NPP construction time - critical path years D8 (n), E8 (p), F8 (shift) Binomial distribution parameters for the critical path construction time for the nuclear power plant
LAES construction time - mobilisation years D10 (n), E10 (p), F10 (shift) Binomial distribution parameters for the mobilisation construction time for the liquid air energy storage plant
LAES construction time - critical path years D11 (n), E11 (p), F11 (shift) Binomial distribution parameters for the critical path construction time for the liquid air energy storage plant
Starting strike price £/MWh B13 Starting contract for difference price for the nuclear power plant
Air plant asset cost £ C15 (alpha1), D15 (alpha2), E15 (min), F15 (max) The base asset cost for the liquid air energy storage plant
Construction cost split - B16 The proportion of cost spent during the mobilisation phase of construction
Base annual O&M costs £ B20 Operation and maintenance costs for the nuclear power plant
Refuel costs £ B21 Refuelling costs for the nuclear power plant
CES annual O&M costs £ B23 Annual operation and maintenance costs for the liquid air energy storage plant
Nameplate capacity - no storage MW B30 Nameplate capacity for the nuclear power plant without storage
Charge system consumption MW B31 Power consumed by the liquid air energy storage plant when charging
Discharge system yield MW B33 Power yielded by the liquid air energy storage plant when discharging
Storage capacity tonnes B35 Storage capacity for the liquid air energy storage plant
Air production rate - storing tonnes/half hour B36 Rate air is stored when the liquid air energy storage plant charges
Air consumption rate - peaking tonnes/half hour B37 Rate air is used when the liquid air energy storage plant discharges
Reactor fuel time days B39 How long the nuclear power plant's fuel load lasts
Refuel downtime days B40 How long the nuclear power plant is offline for refuelling
Year to start construction - B41 The year in which plant construction commences
Corporation tax % B42 Corporation tax rate charged on profits
Discount rate % B43 Discount rate for the financial model
Arbitrage drop-down selection B46 Whether the model operates in arbitrage mode (non-arbitrage means electricity to charge the liquid air energy storage plant is always purchased from the nuclear power plant)
Charge window start time time B47 Opening of the liquid air energy storage plant charge window
Charge window end time time B48 Closing of the liquid air energy storage plant charge window
Discharge window start time time B49 Opening of the liquid air energy storage plant discharge window
Discharge window end time time B50 Closing of the liquid air energy storage plant discharge window
Time series parameters are defined at the bottom of the 'control parameters' sheet and populate values in the EPM (electricity price model) sheets. All parameters are defined in year 0 (value in cell B41) and are adjusted for consumer prices index according to the model's iteration time series. Values are defined for years 0,5,10,15,20,25 and 30 and are linearly interpolated between these values. If more control is required, values can be manually adjusted in the EPM sheets.
Day average price £/MWh C69-I69 The mean price for the day average price time series
Day average volatility - C70-I70 The volatility for the day average price time series
Error values average - C71-I71 The mean for the error values time series
Error values volatility - C72-I72 The volatility for the error values time series
Amplitude factor - C73-I76 Amplitude factors for the daily price profiles (set by quarter)